Droughts are, of course, complicated
But DRBC graphics help understanding

That drought we experienced in the autumn? It’s not over yet, at least for much of the four-state watershed. (New York returned to normal status on January 1.)

So the Delaware River Basin Commission today voted to extend its Water Supply Emergency resolution (2024-07) to an unspecified date or (from the resolution):

when the combined storage in the New York City Delaware Basin reservoirs (including the projected water runoff equivalent of actual snow and ice within the watersheds tributary to the reservoirs) reaches a level 15 billion gallons above the drought watch line… and remains above that level for five consecutive days.

The Water Supply Emergency is not a drought — that determination is based on the amount of water in the three New York City reservoirs. Have a look: (all these graphics are from today’s DRBC meeting)

It’s a pretty bumpy line. As explained by the DRBC’s senior water resources manager, Fanghui Chen, at today’s meeting, the water levels have risen in the past few days due both to some — not a lot — of rain and boosted by snowmelt due to warmer temperatures.

But the drought persists.

See above the top graphic from today’s meeting.

See how precipitation is six inches above normal in the northern basin, but 18 inches below normal in some areas of Pennsylvania and 14 inches below normal in New Jersey?

There can be wacky swings in what different areas of the basin are experiencing.

But gaging our water supply also relies on looking at several other measurements, like streamflow:

On this graphic you can see how those areas are seeing less water in their streams — especially south Jersey.

And groundwater (this is the water below ground):

When you start putting these measurements together you can see why there’s a lingering problem.

And do you remember the problems with wildfires that New Jersey had last year?

Here’s an excerpt from a release from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection:

The Forest Fire Service has responded to a marked increase in wildfires since the onset of the state’s abnormally dry period in September 2024, which saw one of the busiest fall wildfire seasons on record, with 798 wildfires burning 4,847 acres. Since Jan. 1, the Forest Fire Service has responded to 356 wildfires statewide, burning a total of 1,022 acres – a threefold increase in wildfires compared to the same period last year.

Wildfires are another harbinger of climate change in our region. 

Here’s the drought status in the states (remember the DRBC only declares a drought for the river itself. The states declare it for themselves):

So we’re not out of the woods yet, as this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook predicts.

Let’s keep our fingers crossed.